Paskorn Jumlongrach
News outlets in Myanmar similarly reported that the Three Brotherhood Alliance composed of Kokang (Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army: MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Arakan Army (AA) which have launched its Operation 1027 against the Myanmar Army since 27 October 2023, has advanced to Maymyo in Mandalay Region, after laying siege to the largest city in Shan State, Lashio.
The offensive plan of the Three Brotherhood Alliance is quite interesting. After clinching victories in Northern Shan State, it appears they are headed to Mandalay, the ancient capital city of Myanmar and a major trade and economic hub, second only to Rangoon.
According to credible sources, the Three Brotherhood Alliance itself shall never defeat Myanmar Army in such short period of time. However, given the backing from China in terms of weapons and manpower, the Three Brotherhood Alliance has been able to derail the Tatmadaw’s forces causing Min Aung Hlaing who usually minced his words about China to recently come out and directly call out the country.
Meanwhile, China’s behavior does have a direct bearing on Thailand. Apart from the Three Brotherhood Alliance which has functioned as frontline fighters for China, the UWSA (United Wa State Army) is another China’s key apparatus. And let’s not forget that UWSA is the mightiest army among the ethnic forces in Myanmar being equipped with weapons and elite forces. The ethnic forces have to even rely on weapons supplies from UWSA’s factories that produced its own weapons.
In the past few years, the UWSA has expanded its influence from the Chinese border to the Thai border along the borderline of Chiang Rai to Chiang Mai and Mae Hong Son. Using weapons to expand its territory asides, UWSA has sent its people to resettle along the Thai border as well while evicting the indigenous Shan from the area.
In Tachileik opposite to Mae Sai District, which used to be home to Shan descendants, it is now teemed with ethnic Wa people and Wa soldiers. Unsurprisingly, narcotic trafficking is so rampant brimming over Chiang Rai-Chiang Mai and the Mekong Basin.
Experts and scholars similarly held that China is “planning big” with the support from the Three Brotherhood Alliance and the Wa army (actually, it should be called the Four Brotherhood Alliance). They have become the trailblazing forces to expand the territory capitalizing on racial affinity between Wa and Kokang which share similar cultures and history and used to be a part of China. It is therefore not surprising that one day the Four Brotherhood Alliance would soon declare territories under its control as under the rule of the Chinese government.
‘The Four Brotherhood Alliance’ which serves as front-line forces for China shall not stop at Shan State and Mandalay. Right now, the TNLA and the MNDAA have penetrated and reached the Thai western border claiming they are reinforcing the Mon ethnic armed forces which are waging war with the Myanmar Army.
Actually, in the wake of the crackdown on criminal hubs in Laukkaing, the Kokang and Chinese online scammers have moved their bases to by the Moei River in Myawaddy opposite to Thailand’s Ban Chong Khaep. Even without serious efforts by Thailand to crack down on them, they have been living on edge since the area is home to the battles waged by various armed groups including the Thai Army. This has prompted the Chinese grey businesses and Kokang to now move their underground businesses to farther south in the area opposite to Kanchanaburi toward Ranong.
The opening of new hubs of Chinese grey businesses and the expansion of power by the Chianese Government toward the sea and to protect their economic vested interest have now left the Thai border being surrounded by Chinese influence.
One of the mistakes made by successive Thai governments is the military leaders and politicians have been maintaining their cozy relationships with Min Aung Hlaing so much so that there was no space for the ethnic groups. This was ostensibly attested to during the battles in Myawaddy when the KNU-led opposition forces nearly sacked the city, but the game was changed when the Thai authorities who still viewed Min Aung Hlaing positively used its influence to protect the Myanmar top brass after the defeat while negotiating and forging conditions which worked “in favor” of the SAC (State Administration Council).
If the Thai policymakers happened to take a look at how China has launched their offensives by adhering to its own vested interest, the situation at the Thai border would never become like present. Right now, we have kept retreating and barely have any influence on the ethnic armed groups and opposition groups to the SAC even though Thailand has for a long time been home to these ethnic armed groups.
While the Royal Thai Army which has the knowledge and acquittance with various ethnic groups plays one role, the Royal Thai Armed Forces plays a different role, and the National Security Council (NSC) plays another role. Thai politicians taking charge of policies at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs also play a different role. This demonstrates a lack of unity among them and there is no clear offensive policies.
We have allowed China to advance through areas using the UWSA and the Three Brotherhood Alliance and they are now situated very close to the Thai border. This happens despite that Thailand has been having a close relationship with the Shan army, RCSS/SSA (Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army) led by Lt Gen Yod Suk. Most importantly, Thai people, particularly those in Lanna and ethnic Shan people have shared close kinship since World War II when Field Marshall Plaek Phibunsongkhram dispatched troops to lay siege to “Saharat Thai Doem”, which was the largest area of Shan State. Nowadays, if we ask any Shan people who they prefer to be ruled under, between Myanmar and Thailand, they would definitely want to live under the rule of Thailand since our cultures are very similar.
But right, how the Thai authorities simply stay idle and complacent allowing the UWSA to mobilize their forces very close to the Thai border, and they have even made an incursion into the Thai territories at certain spots. Still, Thailand appears ambivalent. At the Chiang Rai border, the Wa armed forces have laid underground cables more than ten kilometers long from Mae Chan District’s Ban Santisuk Village to military bases of the Wa army in Myanmar to support their communications. It shows how Thailand’s “influence” has greatly declined.
If the Thai policymakers and military leaders lack genuine understanding and simply choose to play safe letting the Chinese grey businesses to create their havens around its borderlines, leaving the Wa armed forces to siege the land along the border at whim and allowing Chian to exert its influence within and outside the country, tomorrow, we will likely become a China’s protectorate.
Over a century ago, King Rama IV liberated part of Siam from China and stopped sending a delegate to send “Jim Kong” (tribute) to China ceasing the long-running tradition. But now, we are being subject to China’s soft power while the Thai government remains complacent and is not even aware of the situation.
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