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Myanmar Junta Chief Vows to Retake Karenni State Amid Winter Fighting

The Karenni State Interim Executive Council (IEC) updated the situation in Karenni (Kayah) State after Myanmar Junta Chief Min Aung Hlaing visited Loikaw recently, vowing to take back the land from allied ethnic armed groups. One factor contributing to the Military Junta’s upper hand is China’s support, providing drones and weapons.

Ko Banya, the spokesperson of the IEC, gave an interview to Transborder News on December 4, 2024, clarifying that the State Administration Council (SAC), under Min Aung Hlaing’s control, has recently sent more troops into Karenni State. Even though the Karenni Army (KA) had seized most of the state since November last year, setbacks have occurred, with SAC forces retaking parts of Loikaw, the capital of Karenni State. While the SAC has been trying to persuade citizens to return to areas under their control, many regions remain unsafe for civilians to live in.

“Since two or three days ago, there have been armed clashes outside urban areas, near Loikaw University. They (SAC forces) announced that people who want to return to Loikaw City must first seek permission from the SAC, but no one is applying. Right now, some civilians are still living in central Loikaw, but fighting surrounds them every day, especially on the road to Pekon, which the SAC recently seized.

“They’ve also sent troops to Moe Bye, causing the fighting to spread. Between Loikaw and Lin Lay, there is a standoff at Pasawng. But the situation is still unstable, with SAC and KA forces fighting back and forth in many areas. Recently, there have been clashes near Bawlakhe as well,” said the IEC spokesperson.

He also noted that SAC has been reinforcing its troops in Karenni State. The KA has struggled to cut off SAC’s transportation lines from Tongyi. While the People’s Defence Force (PDF) still controls many areas along key roads, it hasn’t been enough to take full control. Recently, SAC forces have regained many towns from the people’s alliance. 

However, Ko Banya called this back-and-forth fighting typical, stating, “The real issue is that the people’s alliance lacks sufficient weapons, making it difficult to combat SAC forces, which receive substantial support from China, especially drone technology.”

When asked about how the SAC’s increasing control over Karenni State might affect the IEC’s plans to establish a federal state administration and democracy, Ko Banya admitted some plans might face delays. For example, setting up a formal Karenni State Executive Council requires a constitutional process. The current constitution, drafted by the Karenni State Consultative Committee (KSCC), is still transitional. However, progress has been made in organizing local elections, with 16 elections set-up successfully completed.

When addressing China’s support for the Myanmar junta, Ko Banya expressed concern. He noted that China’s involvement in Myanmar is primarily driven by its own economic interests, with little regard for the political systems suitable for the local population. He said, “China’s role creates obstacles for Myanmar’s people in their efforts to overthrow the military junta. However, we believe China’s influence can only go so far, as the people’s alliance enjoys strong support nationwide.”

The IEC has warned that fighting during the winter season is expected to escalate, as SAC deploys more troops following the rainy season.

“Recently, Min Aung Hlaing (Chairman of the SAC and the leader of the 2021 coup) visited Loikaw, declaring that the SAC will reclaim all land occupied by opposition forces. This means the fighting will intensify, and it’s unpredictable how long it will last or how severe it will become,” the IEC spokesperson added.

On December 3, Kantarawaddy Times reported that the SAC announced that Loikaw residents wishing to return to their homes must first fill out registration forms at SAC offices. 

“Previously, SAC soldiers allowed us to enter areas under their control to check our homes. But now, they say we must register at their administrative office near the Clock Tower in town before being allowed to live there,” said a local resident.

This requirement applies to residents of Naung Yar (A), Naung Yar (B), Mine Lone, Htay Tha Ma, and Daw Oo Khu—areas still experiencing fighting between SAC forces and the KA, with support from the PDF alliance.

Since November 11, 2023, opposition military operations in Loikaw have forced SAC forces to cease administrative duties in the city, prompting residents to flee to the Shan State border. Over the past year, the SAC has been trying to encourage people to return to Loikaw, claiming efforts to rehabilitate basic infrastructure, including repairing electricity, telecommunications, government offices, markets, and schools.

Despite SAC’s efforts, civilians remain wary. On November 14, 2024, a local man in Naung Yar (B) was injured by a bomb trap planted in his own house while briefly returning to check on his property, highlighting the ongoing dangers for those seeking to return.

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