Tensions are escalating along the Thailand-Myanmar border as the Royal Thai Army (RTA) has issued a one-month ultimatum for the United Wa State Army (UWSA) to withdraw its troops from disputed areas in Northern Provinces. The UWSA, however, has rejected the request, claiming their military bases are not located on Thai soil.
Experts Warn of Potential Conflict
Thai analyst Dulyapak Preecharush, president of the Association of Regional Studies in Thailand and Associate Professor of Southeast Asian Studies at Thammasat University, has warned that a military clash between the RTA and UWSA may be inevitable. In an interview with Transborder News on November 26, 2024, he highlighted the UWSA’s strategic ambitions to expand its autonomous state along the Salween River’s eastern lands.
“The Royal Thai Army has made several attempts to negotiate peacefully, urging the UWSA to withdraw from seven disputed areas. However, this time, they have set a firm deadline of December 18, 2024. If the UWSA refuses, a military operation to reclaim the territory is likely,” said Preecharush.
Disputed Areas and Strategic Concerns
The immediate focus of contention is Doi Hua Ma in Pai District, Mae Hong Son Province, which Thailand asserts is under its sovereignty. However, the UWSA claims that their bases are within Myanmar’s territory.
Preecharush detailed the broader implications of the conflict, pointing to several disputed areas along the Thai border, including Pang Ma Pa and Pai subdistricts in Mae Hong Son and Chiang Dao District in Chiang Mai. These regions fall within what the UWSA refers to as the “721 Region.”
He emphasized that the UWSA’s actions reflect a deliberate effort to expand its territorial control, particularly into southern Shan State near the Thai border. Although Myanmar’s 2008 Constitution recognizes UWSA’s administrative authority in northern Shan State, the southern expansion remains legally unrecognized.
UWSA Strength and Drug Trade Links
Preecharush also underscored the challenges posed by the UWSA’s strengthened position. “The UWSA has grown increasingly aggressive due to the weakening of Myanmar’s military junta. Additionally, areas near the Thai border are controlled by warlords involved in the illegal drug trade, which funds infrastructure and development in Wa State. This poses a direct threat to Thailand’s sovereignty,” he said.
The UWSA’s alleged backing by China further complicates the situation, with Preecharush calling on Thailand to include Beijing in future negotiations.
Strategic Recommendations for Thailand
To address the issue, Preecharush suggested a two-pronged approach:
1. Diplomatic Engagement: Thailand should collaborate with China and other Mekong-region nations to curb the UWSA’s provocative actions and illicit activities.
2. Military Preparedness: While negotiation remains the preferred route, Preecharush warned that the use of military force may be unavoidable if diplomatic efforts fail.
He also advocated forming alliances with other ethnic armed groups in Myanmar, such as the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), to counterbalance the UWSA’s military influence.
“If the Thai Army acts alone, it risks being at a strategic disadvantage,” he noted, referencing the UWSA’s alliances with groups such as the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), Shan State Progress Party (SSPP), and the Kokang Army.
Official Statements and Current Situation
Despite rising tensions, Thai Army spokesmen have sought to reassure the public. Col. Thirat Sombatsiri stated that the risk of violent confrontation remains low. Col. Rungkhun Mahapanyawong, spokesman for the RTA’s 3rd Army Region, described the border situation as “normal,” adding that cross-border relations remain stable.
On the UWSA’s side, spokesman Nyi Rang told The Irrawaddy that the issue must be resolved at the governmental level, emphasizing that the situation on their side of the border remains calm.
Conclusion
As the December 18 deadline approaches, the possibility of a peaceful resolution remains uncertain. The outcome of the standoff will likely have significant implications for regional stability and Thailand’s border security strategy.
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