An interview, by Paskorn Jumlongrach
Assoc. Prof. Dulyapak Preecharush, President of the Association of Regional Studies in Thailand and Lecturer in Southeast Asian Studies, Thammasat University, gave an interview to “Transborder News” regarding the Thai army’s standoff with the United Wa State Army (UWSA), aka the “Red Wa} in the northern border area that Shan State, which borders northern Thailand. The Dan Lao Thanon Thong Chai Range, has been home to the Khun Sa’s forces’ military bases along the border since the Cold War. When Khun Sa’s Mong Tai Army collapsed, it gave rise to a power vacuum and many areas have fallen under the control of Chao Yod Suk’s SSA forces, whereas other areas under the control of the Red Wa forces. Some bases are located overlapping with the demarcation line. If we adhere to the Anglo-Siamese Treaty on Burma regarding the demarcation line, it is clear that the Red Wa bases at Doi Nong Luang and Doi Hua Ma, Pai District, sit deep in Thailand’s territory. The 3rd Army Area has negotiated with and remonstrated with the Wa representatives from time to time over the past several years, but the Wa have refused to withdraw its troops. This time, it should be an important point where the Thai authorities have set a deadline for the Wa and prepared a military operation to reclaim the area.
The reporter asked why they have to give an ultimatum at this time.
Asst. Prof. Dulyapak said that the Thai security agencies have tried many times to foster a peaceful solution, but the Wa are still insisting and challenging that if we use force, they will retaliate. In terms of our effort to protect our sovereignty, their reaction is intolerable. The Wa soldiers seem to adopt a more aggressive behavior recently because the power of the Burmese military has weakened and the Thai border is under the power of the Wa clan or war lords. This has led to an increase in the production of drugs, posing a threat to Thailand. As the power of the Burmese military weakens and the Wa army appears to grow a strong and close tie to China, the Thai authorities may think that if we let it go on for too long, it may be difficult to defend our sovereignty. This serves as an official warning to the Wa. If Thailand can successfully reclaim the area, it will help to cement our stable power on the Thai border and in southern Shan State.
The reporter asked if, apart from the area in Pai District, there are other areas where the UWSA has encroached on Thai territory. The president of the Association of Regional Studies in Thailand said that there are several areas as such. As far as he knows, such areas are located in Pang Mapha District, Pai District, Mae Hong Son Province, Wiang Haeng District, Chiang Dao District, Chiang Mai Province. In Pai District, there are Wa bases including the 721st Battalion, Doi Hua Ma and Doi Nong Luang, the 704th Battalion, Kiew Chang Kap, Doi Kai, Doi Thuai, which are not clear whether they encroach on the border or not. But in Nong Luang, it is clear that there was a breach of our border.
Asst. Prof. Dulyapak said that the current situation illustrates the Wa’s influence in Shan State toward the Thai border and some areas in the Thai territory. The power of the Red Wa has encroached further in Southern Shan State every year and is particularly poignant in certain areas where troops have been withdrawn, but more troops have been later reinforced. This is typical of the establishing a Wa state. Currently, there are only the Wa forces in the northern Shan State bordering China, which is recognized according to the 2008 Burmese constitution. However, the southern Wa bordering Thailand is not recognized. However, the Red Wa are trying to cement its power focusing on the border area with Thailand because one of the elements of state building is having a border. But there has been an encroachment into the Thai territory and many Wa bases are producing drugs. The income from drug trafficking also plays a part in developing the infrastructure for the prosperity of Wa State. If Thailand does nothing now, it may be left at a disadvantage. Reclaiming sovereignty and organizing the area bordering Shan State should be strategically beneficial to Thailand.
The reporter asked how Thailand should strike the balance of power among various forces to serve its own interest. Asst. Prof. Dulyapak said that a strategy of balancing power should be used. We did not declare ourselves enemies of the Wa and did not block all the negotiation channels. However, negotiating exclusively with the Wa may not be effective, therefore we need China to chime in. However, it is well known that China supports the Wa. How will Thailand persuade China or the Mekong River Basin governments affected by drugs to join in managing and pressuring the Wa to minimize certain behaviors?
“What should we do? Using military force is unavoidable because Wa’s military bases have already been built in the Thai territory already. How can we reclaim the area? If negotiations fail, it will be time for clashes. However, Thailand must be strategic. If we send in infantry to occupy the area, assuming we can seize the bases, what if the Wa decide to retaliate. This might prompt the Wa soldiers to breach our border at other spots. Exploring alliance with other ethnic groups to balance the situation is necessary, but the scope must be limited to the southern Shan State around the Thai border only.
“In this case, for Thailand, Chao Yodsuk’s Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) is an important element. If the Wa start a war, the Shan army might help to impede the advance of the Wa’s troops. It will be beneficial to us. I say this because the Wa themselves have forged alliance with ethnic groups including the Mong La Army, the Pa-O Red Army. Otherwise, they may ask for troops from the Shan State Army (SSPP), or the Kokang Army, which form an allied force with them. If the Thai army has to defend itself alone without allied ethnic armies in the Shan State battlefield, we will not have any advantage. Therefore, the potential allies that we should be able to recruit are the Shan, some Pa-O groups which oppose the Wa, and the Karenni Army. If the war with the Wa extends beyond the Doi Hua Ma base, we must think about ethnic alliances. Thailand has a chance to ask for their help pressure the Wa,” said the Thammasat University’s faculty member.
When asked what the attitude towards the Burmese army should be, Assoc. Prof. Dulyapak said that in the past, there have been attempts and discussions, but when the Burmese army’s power has dwindled throughout the country, Thailand must talk to the Wa itself. Perhaps, we have received no positive response from them, as a result of which we have to threaten to wage war with the Wa.
“As for the Burmese troops along the border, some of them are there including the Border Guard Forces (BGF) of the ethnic Lahu. If we decide to fight with the Wa to reclaim Doi Hua Ma, and to expel foreign soldiers from the Thai territory, we probably won’t negotiate with the Burmese army since it merely is the expelling of foreign troops. But if it scales up, like if the Wa send more troops to invade us, how will we respond to that? If the situation gets heated up, maybe it is necessary to coordinate with the Burmese army or some BGF.”
When asked if this will become a triggering point for Thailand to get involved with armed conflicts in Myanmar or not, the lecturer in the Southeast Asian Studies at Thammasat University said that we must have a good plan/ We should launch a limited war simply to expel foreign soldiers from Thailand. Most importantly, we must watch the Wa’s reaction. If they retaliate and the situation escalates, it is inevitable for Thailand to try to foster alliance with various political groups in Shan State. It’s impossible to not talk with them. If it gets escalated, it is unavoidable to engage with the group politically. We need to talk with them on various issues from haze to floods stemming from mining in Myanmar.
Especially nowadays, there are different groups involved with the sovereignty of Shan State, and the Wa really think about encroaching on Thai territory. We must manage the relationships. We must clearly demarcate the border, how many kilometers from the border they are allowed to get in.
“My argument is, today, China’s influence has expanded extensively toward the Thailand-Myanmar border. The Wa group is gaining more power. They cast their eyes on creating a Wa state to draw a demarcation line which might overlap with ours. We cannot concede any territory and must respond to it. But as far as Thailand’s influence is concerned, we currently cannot be a key role player to forge peace in Myanmar. Thailand is not able to lead, control, and command the various powerful groups along the border like China does. If today we learn to exercise some power over some influential groups along the border, we will stand to benefit or defer the problem. China has already done this within their border. But we have done nothing, China has intervened in the area bordering Thailand, through the Wa. Today, Keng Tung and Monghpyak are laid siege by the Wa and fall under the influence from China. Thailand used to have influence in Keng Tung, but not now. The northern border of Thailand falls under the influence of China through the Wa, which is both an opportunity and a threat that we have to monitor,” said Assoc. Prof. Dulyapak.
When asked how far the Wa will expand its territory, the president of the Association of Regional Studies in Thailand said that their goal is the entire eastern bank of the Salween River, from the Shan State area bordering China down to the Golden Triangle and the areas bordering Laos and Thailand. But that is not enough. They want to expand into the western bank of the Salween in Tangyan, and other cities using proxies, the SSPP or the Palaung forces, to fight in some cities, which also fall under Wa’s influence. They have already crossed the Salween River.
“The establishment of the Wa state in the future will be divided into two types: the authentic Wa state, which is the northern Wa at Pangsang, the southern Wa bordering Thailand, and the Wa influence area to connect the northern and southern Wa and to enable the Wa to project its power across the Salween toward important mining or strategic cities. Therefore, there will be two parts of Wa: the actual Wa territory and the area under Wa’s control which is larger than the eastern area of the Salween. It will become a large administrative area. In the future, there may be a change in the Wa territory in the 2008 Burmese Constitution. It must be discussed in the parliament and during the future elections. Today, they have expanded its territory on practical term which has already given Wa more power,” said Assoc. Prof. Dulyapak.
The reporter asked that the Thai army has tried to negotiate in many rounds, but the Wa army did not give much importance to them and appear to react aggressively. What is his take on this? Assoc. Prof. Dulyapak said that they are confident in their military strength and power. They have about 20,000-30,000 troops and tens of thousands of people along the border. They have access to weapons, equipment, and moral support from China. The relationship can be traced back to when Wa was controlled by the Communist Party, which was created after the Community Party in China. The traces of relationship between China and Red Wa are visible up to the present.
“The Wa do not like negotiating with anyone. The Wa like to be on their own with high autonomy. They don’t like intervention from outside. The Burmese do not treat the Wa as rebels, similar to some groups in Kachin and Shan States. The Wa are not rebels but do not want anyone to interfere with them. Their idea to establish a Wa state has come to the fore and they want to establish a clear border encroach into the Thai territory. However, the Wa are not interested in seriously discussing the issue. It reflects their political sociology. In the past, the Thai military might negotiate with the Wa but did not clearly show them our military strength. This makes the Wa more or less confident that the Thai military do not have much military power. We have been waiting for many years. Today, the situation in Shan State is chaotic. It should be an important time for Thailand to tame the power of these groups to ensure they listen to Thailand more. This will make us have a greater role in peace politics and the battling of drugs. Today, we should be able to push the Wa soldiers out of Thai territory.”
The reporter asked that during the time when General Surayud Chulanont was the army commander and Mr. Thaksin Shinawatra was the prime minister, there was already some similar incident. Assoc. Prof. Dulyapak said that at that time, the Wa were heavily producing drugs. Mr. Thaksin was facing a backlash, and news about the Burmese, Thai, and Shan soldiers was widely reported. Mr. Thaksin said that the Thai army overreacted. At that time, there were reports that the Burmese army had breached the Thai border and the Thai soldiers responded at Ku Teng Na Yong, Chiang Rai and other border areas. Gen. Surayud brought cavalry troops there for a drill. The 3rd Army Area was having a clash with the Burmese army. Mr. Thaksin said that the Thai army went too far. But at that time, the Wa Red forces were involved in the conflict equation. The Red Wa collaborated with the Burmese army and had a clash with Chao Yodsuk’s troops at the Thai border as the Burmese Army wanted to seize Doi Tai Leng.
“Mr. Thaksin adopted a rather complex mindset. In his view, being friendly with the Burmese army will help us benefit from trade. But he doesn’t like the Wa because he was waging a war on drugs, even though during the war, the Burmese army and the Wa were alliances. After that, Thaksin has left Thailand. Upon his return, since he places an importance on suppressing drugs, and want to fight with the Red Wa, raise the flag of the Thai armed forces. I think Mr. Thaksin holds no favorable views on the Wa anyway. So he probably won’t be able to avoid clashing with the Wa. I think Mr. Thaksin’s mindset has an impact on Thailand’s relationship with the Wa.”
The reporter asked whether an effort should be made to cement the power of the Thai state in Thailand’s western border or not, Assoc. Prof. Dulyapak said that Karenni State is an important area. It serves as a linchpin between Shan State and Karen State. Now, the Chinese grey businesses have relocated their bases in northern Thailand to Shwe Kokko and KK Park and further south. Still, China continues to expand its power through the Karenni State. This is an important area in which Thailand must set up human rights assistance. And there are many other parts such as the hydropower dam projects on the Salween River that China wants to build in Karenni State but they have an impact on the environment and ethnic groups. Will it affect Thailand as well? Karenni State is an area close to Naypyidaw, so it is important to Thailand.
As for Karen State, how can Thailand transport its goods and services via Asia Highway No. 1 through the Dawna Range in Myanmar? The problem is if the logistics are done, the Karen National Union (KNU) is worried about how Myanmar will handle this. I agree that Thailand should make more effort to establish its influence, but the problem is which agency will take the lead to provide humanitarian assistance, protect the border, and make Thailand have a more leading role.
“For the border area, collaboration should be made among (1) the Department of Border Affairs, the Royal Thai Armed Forces Headquarters, which has a mechanism to talk with Myanmar, (2) the border forces including the Pha Muang Force, the Naresuan Force the Surasee Force, which oversees 3-4 ethnic states along this border, and 3. the Border Command Center, chaired by the Provincial Governor and with other agencies coming in to manage border issues. If the Border Command Center plays a leading role and has two agencies come in, including civil society, with roles in helping with humanitarian assistance, public health, and religion, this will make Thailand’s influence more powerful in reorganizing the area on the opposite side,” said Assoc. Prof. Dulyapak.
When asked whether the case of the Chinese mafia who profit from criminal hub along the Thai border, can our effort to rescue the victims help establish more security and power for the Thai state? The lecturer in the Southeast Asian Studies, Thammasat University, said that the political economy in the Moei River Basin and the Tenasserim Mountain Range is complicated, with many shades of sovereignty and many groups of warlords. If Thailand is to establish its hegemonic power alone, it would not be able to solve this problem to its full potential. We need to learn to balance power more in order to solve border issues and to serve Thailand’s best interest.
“For example, in Karen State, we cooperate with the KNU, but there are some issues that we do not receive cooperation from the KNU. What should we do? Waging war might not be an appropriate solution. We could recruit support from some BGF groups or the DKBA, who are the KNU’s adversaries. We may bring them in to balance the power. As far as I can see, there has been an attempt to establish friendship with other groups more. In terms of education or other things, they need help from Thailand. If we go in and help, we can accumulate our charisma. If our security agencies approached to help them, it will help to balance the situation. For Karen politics, we must explore various groups and know how to recruit their help appropriately.”
The reporter asked whether the current government show any ability to work on border security issues or not, Assoc. Prof. Dulyapak said that even though it is not clear today, he thinks that in the future, there should be an opportunity because Thailand is waging a war on drugs, cracking down on scammers. We need to however expand our effort deep on the other side as well. We cannot just be defensive; we must stem the problem at its root. Currently, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the National Security Council, and the Royal Thai Armed Forces are more aware and appear to make our positions clearer.
“Working passively in Thailand may not be enough. We must establish a road around the area, allowing Thailand to export its influence, culture, and strategy to cover all aspects. For example, Shan State with ethnic Shan and Wa borders with us. If the Thai government exports soft power products to Shan people who are ethnically similar to us, we will have a chance to suppress drugs in Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, and Mae Hong Son,
We can’t just rely on drug busting anymore. We have to get involved with the politics of the Wa, Shan, and other ethnic groups. We have to draw the clear demarcation line marking where the Thai border is exactly. It is not that we are going to breach or violate anyone’s sovereignty. Rather it is a forward area defense or the strengthening of relationship to ensure our security at the Thailand-Myanmar border, in southern Shan State, Karenni State across to Mae Hong Son, Tak, Moei, into Karen State. It is an area studies method to identify the areas to help ensure security and safety of Thailand” said Assoc. Prof. Dulyapak.
—————
This is a translation of original Thai article, https://transbordernews.in.th/home/?p=40649
